10 August 2013

Brave New World

Somewhere around the end of the 1790s society began to grow a bit uncomfortable in its own skin.  World thought was becoming molded by the rational, enlightened ideals of science and reason, questioning God.  Its foundation literally being reforged by industrial revolution.

It was all too unfamiliar.  Other-worldly.  Far away from home.  Society began to push back, on this brave new world they had never seen before.  They maybe yet hadn’t enough time to get their collective head around it all.

Coal.  Steam power.  Machinery.  Mass production.  Revolution.  The rights of man over the state.  An age advocating reason over revelation, condemning the very institutions of God for their corruption and secular inbreeding.  Almost permanent world war across every continent.

Some philosophers, writers, artists withdrew from that world.  And they began re-writing it.  Re-painting it.  Re-thinking it.  And they gave us the opposite of science, critical analysis or enlightenment.  They gave us Romanticism.

Greats like Coleridge, Wordsworth, Goya, Friedrich, Austen, Bryant, Turner, Shelley, Peacock, Irving, Scott, Keats, Byron, Schubert, Delacroix, Cooper, Pushkin, Mendelssohn, Chopin, Hugo, Andersen, Poe, Stendhal, Gogol, Carroll, Whittier, Dickens, Dumas, Wagner, Isaacs, Chopin, Thoreau, Emerson, the Brontes, Lowell, Thackeray, Durand, Hawthorne, Melville, Lizst, Beecher Stowe, Tennyson, Flaubert, Dickinson, Brahms, Collins, Longfellow, Eliot, Turgenev, Manet, Strauss, Cezanne, Renoir, Monet, Dostoevsky, Alcott, Twain, Tolstoy, Verne, Degas, Homer, Tchaikovsky, Trollope, Debussy, Stevenson, Massenet, van Gogh, Seurat, Rimsky-Korsakov, Hardy, Wilde, Repin, Munch, Kipling, Chase, Stoker… To name a few (well I guess, to name most of note).

And it made me think of now.  I wonder if we will have a push-back period?  If so, when and what might it create?  Push-back from what, you might ask?  In an extremely short period of time, our entire world has become radically and forever transformed by the digital revolution (already an archaic term) that gained critical mass in the 1990s.

Our social interaction through the Internet, with digital devices through wireless connectivity, really arrived en masse in its present ubiquitous form just over the past five to seven years or so.  We've hardly had a chance to breathe.  Get use to it.  Evolve our interrelations through it.  Partly because it all is still just changing so fast.  Every two or three years it still looks so different from the two or three years before.

To illustrate, just this year, mobile app use surpassed mobile web browsing.  The modern-day smartphone didn't even exist until just six years ago with the release of the iPhone in 2007 (Blackberry and other predecessors don't really compare).  The next year, Apple opened its App Store and the Android came out.  The Samsung Galaxy and Wave, Windows phone and Apple iPad have barely been out two or three years.  Indeed, “app” was 2010’s word of the year.

The Internet itself had over two billion users by 2010 (2.4 billion presently). We had half that the year Apple launched its iPhone in 2007. There were 500 million users in 2001.  In 1997, there were only 70 million.  (That's worldwide.)

In 2012 Facebook achieved over one billion users.  It had 12 million in 2006.  This year, YouTube scored over one billion users – the year after it was founded, in 2006, it had 30-40 million.  LinkedIn achieved over 200 million members last year, up from 32 million in 2008.

In 2012, Twitter had 340 million Tweets daily.  Two years earlier in 2010 – the year #hashtag use exploded – Twitter had 65 million Tweets per day.  Two years before that in 2008, it took three months for Twitter to log 100 million Tweets.

Instagram only launched in 2010.  By 2012, it had 100 million users.  Tumblr microblogs only came out in 2008.  So did Spotify, and doubled its 2010, ten million users in two years by 2012.  Buzzfeed and Skype got popular only around 2006, around when Politico and The Huffington Post launched.

The oldest stuff we have is the iTunes Store, which has now been around since 2003.  Three years later, it sold its one billionth song.  By 2010, ten billion songs.  Wikipedia launched in 2001.  It now has 365 million readers of 30 million articles in 286 languages.  PayPal launched in 2000.  Relics Napster and MySpace were at their peaks around 1999.  eBay launched around 1997. And Amazon.com sold its first book in 1995 – when there were 16 million Internet users worldwide.

We’ve come a long way.  Every few years.  And this is our brave new world.  Which will look kind of rustic a few years from now.  I don’t have any deep thoughts about it.  Mostly because my head is still spinning about it.  I am fascinated to watch the evolution, eyes wide open, looking for signs of the birth of Postmodern Romanticism.

08 August 2013

Zombie News Nation

In 1949, the Federal Communications Commission (“FCC”) enacted the Fairness Doctrine.  This policy did two things.  First it required broadcasters to commit a portion of their air time to presenting controversial issues considered in the public interest.  Second it required these presentations to allow for contrasting viewpoints.  They didn’t need to have equal time.  The counterpoints just needed to exist.

In 1985 FCC then-chairman Mark Fowler, a former Reagan Administration attorney and campaign staffer, released a report stating that the Doctrine violated free speech and hurt the public interest.  In 1987 under then-chairman Dennis Patrick, another former Reagan Administration official, the FCC voted 4-0 to abolish the Fairness Doctrine.[1]  According to the Commission, enforcement by the government to require contrasting viewpoints was an intrusion and violated the free speech rights of the press.[2]

Congress, at the time controlled by Democrats, protested.  A couple months before the 1987 FCC decision, Congress tried to make the Doctrine law of the land, but Reagan vetoed the legislation.  A Democratic Congress tried again in 1991, but Bush I killed that as well.  (Years later in 2005, Democrats again tried to restore the Doctrine, but a Republican controlled Congress killed that.)

By the mid-1980s, say 1985, you had the Big Three: ABC, NBC, CBS (as well as PBS).  In cable, there was just CNN.  Aside from the Big Three anchor news broadcasts, the major investigative journalism programs then were CBS’s 60 Minutes (launched 1968), PBS’s The MacNeil/Lehrer NewsHour (1975), ABC’s 20/20 (1978) and Nightline with Ted Koppel (1980).  The anchors reported the news under the stricture of the Fairness Doctrine, and the investigative programs generally steered away from politics.

The only political news commentary programs in 1985 were NBC’s Meet the Press (launched 1947), ABC’s This Week with David Brinkley (1981) and CNN’s Crossfire (1982).  I should note, not a year after the Republican FCC chairman publicly stated that the Fairness Doctrine should go away, Fox Broadcasting launched, becoming the fourth commercial broadcast network in the US.

In time, with the Fairness Doctrine now gone, things started to change.  In 1992, Reliable Sources launched on CNN.[3]  In 1994 Politics with Chris Matthews launched on America’s Talking.[4]  Two years after Matthews was up and running, in 1996, the Fox News Channel launched with its headliners, The O’Reilly Report with Bill O’Reilly and Hannity & Colmes.  And in 1998, Fox News launched Fox & Friends.[5] 

Somewhere around here going forward, politics started to become increasingly disagreeable.  Around ~1992-94 several controversies surrounding President Clinton had come into the mainstream.  House Republicans led by Newt Gingrich made a “Contract with America” committing to several initiatives if they achieved a majority of the House at the 1994 mid-term elections.  Which they did and, in 1995, Republicans took both houses of Congress away from Democrats for the first time since 1956.

We ended the 1990s with the embarrassing sex scandals involving Clinton.  And started the 2000s with a Presidential election whose result a large portion of the nation felt was illegitimate at the time. Going forward we grew angrier with a prolonged prosecution on the “War on Terror”, which included invading and occupying a nation that we maybe never should have.

So with this 1990s-forward backdrop of politics growing uglier and the most personal since maybe the 1960s, enter the 21st Century of political news commentary.  Adding to the 1990s-launched stalwarts, in 2003, MSNBC launched Countdown with Keith Olbermann and HBO launched Real Time with Bill Maher.  The Glenn Beck Program on HLN launched 2006[6].  MSNBC launched Morning Joe with Joe Scarborough and Mika Brzezinski in 2007.  In 2008 we got The Rachel Maddow Show on MSNBC and Fareed Zakaria GPS on CNN.  In 2009 we got The Ed Show with Ed Shultz on MSNBC; State of the Union on CNN[7].  In 2010, The Last Word with Lawrence O’Donnell debuted on MSNBC.  In 2011, MSNBC launched PoliticsNation with Al Sharpton, Up with Chris Hayes, Martin Bashir, Now with Alex Wagner; and Fox News launched The Five.  In 2012, MSNBC launched The Cycle.  In 2013, MSNBC launched All In with Chris Hayes.[8]  And if that isn’t enough for us, CNN is bringing back Crossfire this year with Newt Gingrich and others.[9] 

None of that includes various daytime (e.g. The View) or late night Leno, Letterman, Stewart, Colbert, et al often chiming in on politics with various degrees of “not-so-subtlety”. And I haven’t even mentioned talk-radio.

When our Founding Fathers crafted our Second Amendment rights to keep and bear arms, they were dealing with mostly a mix of flintlock, smoothbore muzzle-loaded muskets.  They certainly were aware of the notion of radical technological advances in weapon lethality.[10]  But did they have fully-automatic weapons or perhaps the RPG in mind?[11] 

Consequences, intended or not, can sometimes get out of hand, and not be in the public’s best interest.  Like the murkiness of firearm availability for the few insane who seek to harm us. Like repealing the Glass-Steagal Act.[12]  Like eliminating the line-item veto.[13]  Like Citizens United v. Federal Elections Commission.[14] 

And like abrogating the Fairness Doctrine.  Now I know that I’m starting to sound like I support a nanny-state, Big Brother puppet-mastering the media.  I don’t. I want it free.  But anyone who’s ever read Mary Shelley’s Frankenstein, understands that an unbound lack of guidance can lead to some horrific circumstances.  Thus our monster, the present state of news media commentary.

In 1985, we had a mere three news commentary programs whose primary or major focus was politics.  Two of those only aired once a week, on weekends.  Today by my count, we have almost 21 mostly daily, fully committed political oriented news commentary programs bathing us all week long in a 24-hour cycle.[15]  That sounds like – great, variety is good, right?  But it’s not really variety.  Nearly all these programs are the focus of just two or three sources.  Just two or three editorial departments, where I posit at least two have clear political agendas.

Five of the commentary programs were launched in the 1990s.  Three by right-leaning Fox News.  One by left-leaning MSNBC, one by CNN.[16]  Sixteen were launched in the 2000s+ (including the three cancelled).  Two by right-leaning Fox News (one of which cancelled).  Two by CNN.  And twelve launched by left-leaning MSNBC (albeit two cancelled).

Fox News programming consistently draws larger audiences than MSNBC or CNN (combined).  My guess about that is, people with conservative points of view only really have one place to go, whereas much of the rest of news media offers either a rather left-leaning perspective, like MSNBC, or at least let’s just call it a non-right, neutral perspective like CNN, et al.  Therefore the various shades of liberal-leaning viewership are diffused across a small handful of options, whereas all shades of conservative-leaning viewership are concentrated toward only one.

And that’s kind of the point.  These programs have just become go-to places to be told how to think. They don’t exist to provide information about controversial issues considered in the public interest.  They exist to sell advertising.  They do that by attracting eyeballs.  They attract eyeballs by appealing to our preformed ideological biases.  Unchained now from having to present any credible opposing voice in their content, aside from the occasional weak-handed one, to create enough of an appearance of balance (or perhaps attempt to discredit someone that might suggest what  I am) without ever undermining their narratives.

Their only consequence is losing eyeballs by appearing blatantly disingenuous.  But would their audience ever really see it that way if they are only really there to receive the narrative that supports their world view, which sustains their ego?  To disavow the source of your world view of its credibility, is to admit your own world view lacks credibility.  Is to threaten your ego. And that, according to Eckhard Tolle, for the unconscious mind, is equivalent to threatening death. 

So it's a seductive, and thus lucrative, draw.  These certainly more askew news commentary programs have become nothing more than mills that provide talking points for two opposing tribes that either don’t really want to use their minds and think for themselves, or at least have become lost trying to.  They feed a citizenry that now “informs” itself by steering toward the program that best affirms its beliefs – the co-called “confirmation bias” theory (as pointed out to me by a friend the other day).

What we have now is a society whose people don't really have much interest in understanding a point of view that differs from their own.  We are becoming a self-radicalizing nation.  And for those younger than me by perhaps just a decade, the only thing they’ve been exposed to regarding public political discourse is often intellectually dishonest, loud, sometimes nasty or off-putting, and presented for the most part in only one each of two directions.  We are building a generation that understands politics to be the art of being disagreeable, rather than the art of compromise.[17] 

This will either indoctrinate us in, or repel us from, all form of political discourse.   And reasonable discourse is important to have, if we would still like to be a representative democracy.  It weakens our foundations if we all become programmed to either go to our corners and have a tantrum, or instead simply tune-out in disgust.

We’re always going to have our politics, and our sometimes strong beliefs with them.  That should be OK.  But I would hope that we all strive to understand the issues, using a diversity of credible ideological sources, to arrive at conclusions then that we can truly call our own.

Because nowadays, I can’t remember the last time I had a discussion with friends on pressing issues, where it was not abundantly clear to me that they were simply parroting the spin of their favored pundit (read, party).  And if you don’t sound like their favored pundit, either their ears clog up and they start talking louder, or they just move on because they think you are the one who is intractable.

It’s like trying to talk to a zombie.  And all zombies really want to do is eat your brains.




[1] The FCC typically has five commissioners.  There was one vacancy at the time.  By law, no more than three can be from one political party.  At this vote, two were Republicans, two Democrats. 
[2] Such opinion was later affirmed in the courts. 
[3] It is supposed to be commentary about the press, but it really goes all over politics too. 
[4] A cable news channel spun from NBC.  It failed two years later, and Matthews took his show to CNBC.  By 1999, he was on MSNBC as Hardball with… 
[5] I don’t think too many would argue with me that it’s basically a news opinion show, thinly dressed up as a digest. 
[6] It moved to Fox News in 2009. 
[7] At first with John King, but by next year with Candy Crowley. 
[8] Steve Kornacki took over Up with… 
[9] It was ended in 2005.  With him on the right is S.E. Cupp who left MSNBC’s The Cycle.  On the left will be Stephanie Cutter and Van Jones. 
[10] The breech-loading rifle was just coming out in the 1770s, and it dramatically increased rate of fire; rifling its accuracy.  They just weren’t abundant at the time because they were too expensive to mass-produce. 
[11] Fully automatic features on light assault firearms and rocket propelled grenades are illegal. So are nuclear bombs, and privately-marketed weaponized drones (however I think sharks with laser beams attached to their heads are still available).  But I hope you get my point. 
[12] In 1999, which allowed commercial banks to combine with investment banks.  This allowed the riskier investment taking investment banks to source cheaper commercial bank deposits as funds that did not appropriately price risk.  Thank you, Clinton, and a Republican controlled Congress. 
[13] In 1998, which requires that Bills must be signed into law in their entirety, regardless of how jam-packed it is with completely unrelated fetid, pork-barrel earmarks.  Thank you, a Supreme Court dominated by Republicans. 
[14] Of 2010. Which eliminated restrictions on independent expenditure endorsing political candidates, made by corporations, associations or labor unions. 
[15] This excludes Beck, Olbermann and Dylan Ratigan which have since been cancelled.  It also excludes Rick Sanchez’s Rick’s List, which didn’t last a year after he was canned for racist remarks. 
[16] No one leans more right than Fox News.  But CNN, if left-leaning, isn’t nearly as bad as most of MSNBC programming.  So I’ll call them “non-right” neutral.  And I think Morning Joe is the only MSNBC programming that is actually even-handed. 
[17] German economist and sociologist Max Weber coined “the art of compromise” in a 1919 essay.  But I think he was just channeling Germany’s first chancellor Otto von Bismarck, who said politics is “the art of the possible” sometime in the 1870-80s I guess.

06 August 2013

Groovy Jobs Update




There’s only about 800 important things going on this past year, but let’s just focus today on a cornerstone of our society – its economic sustainability… aka Jobs.

To review, in the Great Recession (circa 2008-09) we lost 8.7 million jobs.  About 3½ years after the end of job loss, we have now recovered 6.7 million of those jobs.  So 2 million to go.  Last Friday, we reported adding 162 thousand jobs in July.  The average monthly for the last three months was 175 thousand; for the last six months was 200 thousand; for the last twelve months was 190 thousand.

Going forward, let’s use 175 thousand per month (because I said so).  That means we will make up the remaining 2 million jobs lost in a little under a year from now… Call it June 2014.  Given that, it will have taken almost 4½ years (from the end of job loss) to recover all jobs lost in the Great Recession.  The average recovery time from end of job loss of the nine preceding recessions of the post-WW II era, I calculate, was one year (ranging 9 to 21 months).  So this recovery appears on track to be 4½ times longer than your run-of-the-mill recession.

And that’s just to get back to a point we already got to in what will have been almost 6½ years earlier, come June 2014.  Aside from recouping the jobs lost, we will also have needed to create jobs for natural growth of the labor force in that time.  Before the fall (end of 2007), the employed civilian labor force numbered 146 million (let’s forget about the then unemployed, because the rate was ~4½%, about as close to full employment as we’ll ever get).  The overall civilian labor force had been growing about 1¼% annually in the two decades before 2007 (roughly at population growth).  But going forward, let’s slow that down to 1% to be a bit conservative, yet still accounting a little for a slower-growing, older America.

That’s about another 9.8 million jobs we should have created from 2007 to mid-2014, on top of the 8.7 million we finally will have made back from February 2010 (the recession’s bottom in terms of job loss) to mid-2014.  So in other words, in order to ever affect a real recovery from the recession, we need to have created a grand total of 18.5 million jobs through mid-2014.  11.8 million to go.  In less than one year from now.

That should have been about 356 thousand jobs each month since early 2010 through mid-2014.  Again, last month we banged out 162 thousand and have been recently running around 175 thousand.  The average for the recovery-to-date has been 164 thousand.  Basically any way you cut it, this recovery-to-date is running at or below half of what is really required to ever truly recover.

Playing with the numbers some more, to achieve a pre-recession economic environment of almost full employment (4-5% unemployment) - which I admit is a lofty goal - you need to run from here at about 300 thousand jobs a month, every month, for the next five years.  We would have to suddenly double what we’ve been doing, and hold at that rate for another half decade, making any true recovery take 11½ years from initial decline.

The Great Depression took 13 years (4 down 1929-33; 9 up 1933-42) to get back to an unemployment rate that resembled pre-1929 stock market crash.  With most of that recovery occurring in the last few years due to war-time production and draft (e.g. 1939 was 17-19% unemployment, 1941 was 10-14%, by the end of 1942 it was below 5%).  But they lost ~25-30% of jobs at the worst point, where we lost 6.3% of jobs in our current Great Recession.  Nowhere near the 1930s, but still over twice the average of all post-WW II recessions.

So we’re at 7.4% unemployment presently, down from 10.0% peak.  If we keep running at the rate we have been, it is unrealistic to believe that we are going to see anything that looks pre-recession “normal” for several years more.  This would be a world of something more like 6.5% unemployment at best for the foreseeable mid-term (which means you can take your finger off the "sell treasuries" button now).  Unless we get job growth more like 200-250 thousand per month, consistently.

Which I believe is now actually around the corner.  But let me just stay glum, because it's often comfortable to wallow on the soft pillow of misery - if for no other reason than it's familiar.  The last time we drifted chronically at 6.5-7.5% unemployment was in the 1970s.

Ahhh… The ‘70s.  Really good music (mostly).  Really bad fashion statements.  Totally un-PC sitcoms.  Other than this chronic economic malaise, today looks nothing like the ‘70s.

  • Other than persistent energy issues: Gas shortages v. $3-5/gallon at the pump…
  • Ugly protracted war: Vietnam v. Iraq/Afghanistan…
  • A government that’s getting outted for poking around where they maybe shouldn’t be: Watergate v. NSA surveillance overreach, FBI secret wiretapping of the press, DEA overreach, IRS political party targeting…
  • And fibbing to the public: Pentagon Papers v. highly likely something in what I just mentioned already in the last point…
  • Government leaks: Ellsberg v. Snowden…
  • Drug epidemics: Heroin, coke, pot v. prescription drugs, and, well, pot…
  • Protest in the streets: May Day riots v. Occupy Wall Street…
  • Armed, dangerous creeps: Son of Sam, Manson v. Newtown et al, Ariel Castro…
  • Terrorism: IRA, Palestinians, The Weather Underground, RAF, PFLP, hijackings, bombs in US airports and DC government buildings v. Boston Marathon, Benghazi, shutting down ~20 embassies…
  • Iran: Revolution v. nukes…
  • Dirty wars: Operation Condor v. drone strikes…
  • Whitey Bulger: Not really working for the Feds v. definitely not working for the Feds…
Aside from that, SO NOT the ‘70s.  Peace.